Thursday, May 14, 2009

Budget outlook

A few days ago I said I'd give an update on the budget, the problem with that is that the picture changes from day to day based on the information we are getting from the state related to changes in state revenue projections and proposals for budget balancing cuts to state education aids.

BEFORE last week's announcement of a larger state deficit this was the budget picture:

Using a "Cast Forward" model from the previous year (essentially projecting all programming forward on an equal basis) we were facing a ~$750,000 budget deficit for next year. This was calculated including the maximum increase allowed by the state under the revenue cap for next year, a total of about $800,000.

After making expected program adjustments (such as adding and subtracting staff based on enrollment), budget cuts and including federal money that can be used to replace existing funding we have reduced the budget deficit to ~$250,000. Close enough to "balanced" given the various uncertanties (such as the exact number of students that will show up in September).

Then last week Governor Doyle announced that the state deficit would be $1.6 billion more than expected. This news was accompanied by a proposal for a 5% cut in state aid to districts. 5% of our state aid is approximatly $800,000. What we don't know is whether or not any of that aid shortfall could be offset with local property taxes. On top of that 5% cut there is talk of another 3-5% cut for the following years and ideas such as a wage freeze and a property tax freeze have been floated.

But none of this will be known for sure until the state passes a budget- and if history is our guide we are likely to see significant change along the way. So its difficult to talk about the budget specifics at this time. It seems likely we will have significant adjustments to make, I just can't say what it will be.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

"What we don't know is whether or not any of that aid shortfall could be offset with local property taxes."

Please don't start with the ludicrous assumption that you should shift the district's reduction of state aid to the property tax! The people you seek to shift this tax to are also getting their incomes cut. We have less income to spend on property tax. What YOU need to do is CUT BACK on the DISTRICT budget to keep the playing field even (i.e. No mill rate increase). If everyone's "income" is going down (mine, the district's, the municipalities, the state), then you'd better make sure the cuts in district pending are proportional. Failure to do so will only lead to more financial problems for families in this district and you not being re-elected (if not recalled).

Anonymous said...

Aren't decisions such as this made by a majority of the school board, as opposed to one lone (blogging)member of the board?

Peter Sobol said...

Please note that I'm not starting with any assumptions of what we should do. I was just stating what I believe are the facts about the budget situation, including our options or lack thereof.

Anonymous said...

While I'm like everyone else and don't like paying taxes, I disagree that government should cut back taxes when the ecconomy slows down.

Taking this thought a step further, would mean bigger increases when times are good. I know my boss won't give me a 10% raise because things are better. I'd rather pay 5% more each year then 0% this year and 10% later. Worse yet, what happens when the ecconomy is pretty good for several years in a row? Historically, good times last about twice as long as bad times, so that would mean 2 big increases for every one break, no thank you.

Tax increases should be slow and steady, and not tied to the economy.