Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Budget outlook

At last Wednesday's BS Committee meeting we were presented with 3 PMA budget models based on assumptions of state increases in the revenue cap of $275/student (Last year's number), 50% of that and 0. For these cases the budget deficit ranges from 0.7 to 1.3 million dollars for the district in 2009-10 budget year. Further, Gov. Doyle has indicated that we shouldn't expect any increases in state aids so any increases in spending under the revenue cap would have to born by the local property taxpayer, an unpalatable option given the current economy.

So one way or another there is going to be a substantial hole in the budget.

What should we do about it? Craig has started the process by asking the staff to bring forward suggestions for places to cut. The administration will go through the various options and prioritize them then bring them to the board for discussion.

Approximately 80% of the district's spending goes into salaries and benefits which means that any significant savings can only be achieved at the cost of reducing staff. I am loathe to see anyone layed-off in the current economy, so I hope that staff reductions can be minimized. Of course some savings can be found in other areas but there just isn't that much there to begin with.

I can't speak for the board or administration, but personally I would choose to focus on preserving efforts to improve core academic achievement. I've been in organizations that try to save money by trimming a little bit out of everything, but this is a quick road to mediocrity where nothing is done well. We should admit we can't do everything, pick the things we want to do and provide the resources to do them well.

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Does the board/administration know how many staff will retire at the end of the year?
While I imagine this is done anyway, it is a good time to restructure positions and hire people who think of the job with a clean slate.

Anonymous said...

Are there any numbers on what closing Maywood would save/cost?

Peter Sobol said...

I think retirements are included into the budget models with replacements with new teachers. I don't know what the numbers are at this point.

I know that the administration is compiling numbers on costs of various programs and activities including the consolidation of Maywood & Winnequah. I don't think that number is put together yet but we will probably see it at the next business services or the March board meeting. I expect there will be substantial savings.

Anonymous said...

I completely agree that the focus needs to be on core academic areas. Here are some places that I think need to be examined.
I would like us to look at closing up Nichols. There are empty classrooms at Winnequah, and some room could probably be found at the high school. The central admin folks could work out of the schools we already heat, clean,etc. In addition, the administrators would be closer to the inner workings of a school- which would be good. The library at Winnequah would be fine for board meetings, in fact a larger and nicer space than the current board room.

I also wonder if we can build some bridges with some other groups in both communities to better use the buildings. It seems that the buildings could be used after school and at night for lots of things that would earn us money.


I would like to see a very stringent examination of money spent on sports and music at the high school level. I know that those are very strong and vocal constituencies, but I also think that there is some money that can be cut there.

It seems all of these things can be examined and looked at before we do things like raise class sizes, and cut programs that directly effect student acheivement.
I think it is a good first step to ask the staff for thoughts-- they probably know best--

Anonymous said...

"I know that the administration is compiling numbers on costs of various programs and activities including the consolidation of Maywood & Winnequah. I don't think that number is put together yet but we will probably see it at the next business services or the March board meeting. I expect there will be substantial savings."

What a shame. This was predicted a few years ago, but was forecasted to happen in the next decade, cetainly not the next few years.

I've heard that Cottage Grove parent groups favor "smaller, neighborhood schools" and in that view would like another building.

When will the interests of the elementary students in Monona be addressed?

Anonymous said...

What needs of Monona elementary students aren't being addressed?

Anonymous said...

I have three kids who are currently or have gone through elementary school in Monona. Never have I felt that their needs were not met. I think the teachers, the school size and the class size has been just perfect. I cannot imagine a better public education for them. So, if your kids individual needs are not being met, I encourage you to go talk to Ann or your teachers- as I have found all staff members to be totally responsive and open.

Anonymous said...

In the interests of the common good, the board will need to disappoint some very persistent constituencies. We shall see which board members have the courage to disappoint people who have supported them in the past, and we shall see if we have any who will merely pander to the people who supported them when they ran for office. I like the idea that across the board cuts are not appropriate. But this approach carries the biggest risk for political fallout, so I wish you well in having the courage to do the right thing as you view it. A thankless task if ever there was one!

Anonymous said...

One thing to add....can the board ask administration to summarize the research regarding class size? It has long been a sacred cow in this district, but what does the research tell us?

Anonymous said...

" has long been a sacred cow in this district, but what does the research tell us?"

What is your point? I really have NOT seen it as a sacared cow as my child had to deal with large classes size in elmentary 24 to 27 w 4 to 5 kids who have special needs and 2 or 3 who English is a second language and no aide.....

Perahps, a special class size existed for you child, but not mine.

Anonymous said...

I too would like to see the research on class size. Compared to other things, it may be one of the best solutions to our issues. And I have no idea where the above poster goes to school, but in Monona, I am always totally amazed at how many aides there are and how much time they spend on the special needs kids. It is really amazing, and my kid gets really individualized attention from his teacher. If raising class sizes by 2 or 3 kids could help, and the research shows that it is insignificant, then I say go for it.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

"Your kids class not mine."

Well, there we have it in an nutshell, huh?

Peter Sobol said...

Comments that claim to speak for someone else will be deleted.

Peter Sobol said...

I looked through the class size literature last year, and this is my interpretation of it:

Smaller class sizes make a significant improvement in achievement, but only in certain circumstances:

1) Effects are significant only for the youngest students, most notably the first contact year. Although the improved performance is persistent throughout the student's career, small class sizes do not continue to have a cumulative benefit beyond the gains made in K-1 grades. In other words small class sizes are no longer a significant benefit by 3rd grade.

2) In order to see a measureable improvement you need a large reduction in class size to 15 students or so. No studies show a significant difference between 22 and 24 or 14 and 16 - the effect is just too small.

3) Effects of small class size are most notable in students with low socio-economic status.

4) Class size for lower elementary students is not the most significant factor in achievement. The qualifications and training of the teacher have the potential to have a much bigger impact on achievement than class size.

The Odden study for example indicates the effect size of a single teacher training program, Classroom instructional coaching, is 5 to 10 times the effect of reducing class sizes to 15.
http://cpre.wceruw.org/finance/WI%20March%201%202007%20Adequacy%20Report1.pdf

I believe the WI "Sage" program is an appropriate approach. Sage targets funding to schools with low socio-economic status to lower class size K-3 to 15 students. This is placing the money where it will have maximum effect, in other areas it is more important to prioritize money to teacher training over class size.

Anonymous said...

Our school district has indeed actually experimented with this very same thing.

Peter, just a few years ago, the Board decided to reduce the 2nd grade classes from 3 sections (in Monona) down to 2 sections, effectively increasing class sizes by 50%, with significant special education and low income student population concerns.

Can you please tell us how the student test scores (standardized testing only, please) compare, from year to year, for the students who were second graders in year 2006-2007 - then third graders in 2007-2008 and now, for this year, 2008-2009??

I know that there was a large contingent of Monona parents concerned about this particular cohort. Please comment on their progress, as a group, over the past three years.

Did our school district's experiment to increase class sizes among challenged classes succeed?

If so, we can immediately start increasing the class sizes in other areas, including our counterparts in Cottage Grove. That should save us significant budget dollars right out of the gate.

We should be fine, speaking from a budgetary standpoint, under that model, right?

Please shed some light. Short of following this model, I fail to see how our school district can survive under the current financial model.

Thank you again for the great amount of time that you devote to the very important issues of our school district.

Anonymous said...

Not sure this would be valid "research" and doesn't qualify as an "experiment". N is pretty small (not enough data), there was no control group and whole host of other issues with drawing conclusions based on this one cohort. Best to go with large, longitudinal studies that have been statistically validated.

Peter Sobol said...

The situation described above was this: The 2nd grade class at Maywood had approximately 48 students. Our district class size policy puts an upper limit of 24 students in 1st and 2nd grades with a goal of 20, and 25 students from 3rd grade with a goal of 22. Based on this policy these students were in 3 sections of 15 or 16 student in K-2 and 2 sections from 3rd grade onward. Analysis of the student population also showed no significant differences in special ed or low income in this group compared to district norms, however additional aide time was assigned to help with some of the special needs in 3rd grade. On average our K-2 class sizes are about 21-22 students, so the low class sizes in K-2 for this group were what was unusual here, if there was an “experiment” here it was the experiment of very low K-2 class size for this cohort.

I haven't looked at the test scores from this cohort of students, nor would I publicly discuss them if I had (all the district data I have looked through has been randomized to protect student identities.) But I can tell you such an analysis won't be fruitful - the variability in the data due to other factors such as student ability and teacher effectiveness make this too small a sample to draw statistically meaningful conclusions. That observation is based on the time I have spent crawling through our data.

I have however inquired of the teachers and Principal about these students. I still recall verbatim a response I got: "We're having a great year!" Individual experience may vary (its impossible to meet all the unique needs of every child), but there was no unusual cause for concern raised about this group compared to others by the teachers or the principal.

One of the things that we need to remember in the class size debate is that the teachers are not simply interchangeable parts, quality matters. – California spent a billion dollars to learn that lesson the hard way. I really don't think it should be to first order about class size, but be about the efficacy of the teachers. I would rather (and I think the data backs me up) that my kid was in a class of 25 with an excellent teacher than a class of 15 with an average one.

Anonymous said...

Bad answer. Did test scores drop from year to year?

This must be answered as we move closer to mandatory compliance with the No Child Left Behind Act.

The data IS available by grade.

Check it out. I don't like it when you try to talk your way around a real answer because the answer might make you look bad.

Anonymous said...

Sobol's answer makes him look like an scientificly minded person. He's saying that other research (including a much larger sample) indicates the change would not have an effect.

His answer also states that there are other variables that can affect test scores (a small sample does not let you correct for these variable either). From a scientific standpoint, Sobol is being very accurate with his answer.

Many people are not scientifically minded, but I feel the quote from the staff to be comforting to me. I think the teachers would notice a drop quickly and let the principal/board know. I applaud Sobol for getting contact from the principal, instead of basing judgement only upon numbers.

I wish there was finantial support in this district to keep class size at 15, but I realize that is impossible. If the board has to increase classes, I hope they continue the proscess described above: Use research to make a best guess, and evaluate the decision afterwards to verify the research findings.

Anonymous said...

"Sobol's answer makes him look like an scientificly minded person."

While-I agree with Peter in the majority. I fail to understand you post overall

"Sobol's answer makes him look like an scientificly minded person."
I think the whole district know Peter's a scientist....

"the board has to increase classes, I hope they continue the proscess described above: Use research to make a best guess, and evaluate the decision afterwards to verify the research findings.
"

And you are fearful that might do something else....like consider people in their response? The district is not some kind of machine or grand experiment.

Anonymous said...

Of course Peter's answer is completely right on. We are talking about 47 kids, for goodness sakes. There is no way to look at their test scores and decide that the sole reason for any changes is due to the larger classes. There have been changes in the make up of that class- kids have left, others have come. The teachers talent and skill comes into play. Again, the teachers both third grade and fourth grade, have said that this is not an issue. The kids are doing fine. I would really like to see some of the folks who are complaining about this instead, let's really talk about how to cut a million dollars out of the budget.

Anonymous said...

re:" Sobol's answer makes him look like an scientificly minded person."

I had two points in my post. First as a response to the post: "Bad answer. Did test scores drop from year to year?"

I felt Sobol's answer was a good one, but it was a scientific answer, and not the emotional one the poster wanted. I think the poster was frustrated by the data, but hearing a response you don't want to hear does not make it a "Bad answer."

Second, I've seen some general criticism on this blog, that the board doesn't think about, nor care about Monona's Schools. I don't agree with the criticism, and beleive the way to argue against it is with clear data behind the decision process, and personal interaction with staff and parents.

While that may be obvious to some, some posts show it is not obvious to all. The board and Sobol should be reassured that their process is a good one.

Anonymous said...

"Bad answer. Did test scores drop from year to year?""

Well. Yea. I agree about the response.... May I ask... have you seen the Air Force's... how to and when to respond to comments in a blog? It may prove very useful for you.

"The board and Sobol should be reassured that their process is a good one."

Oh. Now you have gone a little far for my taste. What process do they have except yelling for data or are they working under a certain set of criteria or process principals?...Say BPR? It has been my observation that they do not-they already have the answer and then find the data to fit their answer(s). Now, I do think Peter is smarter than that one.... Here is sure wishing that you do NOT spend all of your day staring at numbers.

Anonymous said...

Peter-
Can you please give us an update on the facilities ad-hoc. I have heard from some parents that the options have been narrowed. Seems to me all we can do is decide which one is the least expensive given the cuts we have to make. What is the situation right now, and is there a better place to get updates than on this blog?

Anonymous said...

Exactly. For goodness sake, there is a million dollar-plus budget hole! In light of the budget situation, the board needs to pull the plug on the drama this committee has created before it gets any worse. And much, much worse it will get with ideas like bussing 4th/5th graders from CG to Monona in order to make room for Monona 6th graders at the new school and fulfill the not very well hidden agenda of keeping Maywood open.

Anonymous said...

"and fulfill the not very well hidden agenda of keeping Maywood open.
"

Hey smarter pants-what do you think there are like 2 kids in Monona?

Peter Sobol said...

I believe that I am obligated to respect the committee process, so I am reluctant to post on the issue of the ad hoc grade configuration committee here. I may from time to time make basic informational posts, but to do more risks being accused of attempting to improperly influence the committee process. Regardless of how one feels about the operation of a particular committee, the structure is how the board gets things done and I need to respect that process if I expect to hold others to the same standard.
When the committee reports to the board it is our responsibility to ascertain that the process by which the committee operated was thorough, robust and appropriate and that the conclusions make sense. Hold us accountable if we don't.
I know some will consider this a cop-out, sorry 'bout that.

Anonymous said...

I know some will consider this a cop-out, sorry 'bout that.

Nope, I appreciate you thoughts.
However, any chance you could post the reamaining 5 options wo comment?

Anonymous said...

This is not much, but there are minutes from the meeting before the last meeting posted on the district website. It shows the original list and the first rounds of eliminations. It has gone down from there. Also, Candidate Jason McCutchin has comments and thoughts posted on his blog. He is on the committee.
http://jasonmccutchin.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

How to help your budget:

1) Cut all district salaries (teacher, administrator and support staff) by 10%. Keep all employed, if they want to stay. Otherwise, fire them and hire someone else that finds our new salary structure acceptable.

2) Cap the district share of employee health cost at $100/month. Let the employee select whatever health care plan they want, but they pay everything over $100/mo.

3) End employer contribution to employee retirement accounts. Offer employees a tax-deferred compensation plan only. Let them save their own money for their own, often early, retirement. Why should the working stiffs who can never afford to retire pay for these school folks to retire at 55? Is it the the exceedingly dangerous, strenuous work they do for a whole 9 months out of the year that qualifies them for an early retirement? I don't get it???

4) Utilize existing district facilities to accommodate existing district enrollment. We cannot afford to build ANY new facilities while we have vacant, available space in our district. I don't care who gets bussed where or not. Use what we have first! Remember, we are one district, not two.

That should fix your budget hole.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

The suggestions above about employee salaries and benefits above are interesting, but the district is obligated by law to honor union contracts and negotiate with the unions. If they can't reach agreement, they are also obligated to arbitrate the settlement, and not likely for an arbitrator to find in favor of such draconian cuts. By law, the teachers are also guaranteed minimum raises.