Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Phil on the CG & TP capacity

Phil McDade weighed in on the comments section, and I though his response is worth reposting here.

Since the question was asked...(and apologies in advance for the length of this response):

In my view, it's important to distinguish between the two elementary schools in Cottage Grove -- Taylor Prairie (TP) and Cottage Grove School (CG).

Start with TP. It currently enrolls 401 students. The school houses K and 1st grades, plus some sections of the district's new 4-year-old kindergarten program. Although its capacity is listed by the district as 364, I think it's important to look at actual classroom usage, to my mind a more insightful way of assessing usage. We have 8 sections of K at TP, 7 of 1st grade. We have 4 sections of 4K, but since they only attend half-days, we use only two classrooms for those 4K students. We also have dedicated classrooms for art, music, and a computer lab, in addition to dedicated rooms for children with special needs, such as our occupational therapy/physical therapy (OT/PT)classroom. In addition, the "step-room" at TP -- used in previous years for music -- is now open and available for use (teacher training, art shows, the like). The library, gym and cafeteria are used for their original purposes, i.e., we don't have any "spillover" usage of those spaces for anything other than regular instructional/other use. In short, we're using all of the available classrooms at TP, but -- in my view -- we're not overcrowded in that school.

CG School: There is a legitimate argument, in my view, that CG is beyond capacity, but not terribly overcrowded. It currently enrolls 477 students; its listed capacity is 440. We currently have 7 sections each of 2nd, 3rd and 4th grades in CG. We have two dedicated computer labs there, plus a number of spaces for instruction of children with special needs. Are they smaller than regular classrooms? Yes, some are. Are they closets? Not by any stretch. As for crowding at CG, it's mainly confined to related-arts classes like music and art. Music is currently being taught in the step room -- a much larger space than a regular classroom, but it makes that space unavailable for other school uses. Art (and 4th graders who take strings) is currently held in a portion of the cafeteria walled off with a temporary, movable wall. So, in the end, "crowding" at CG comes down to music and art being taught in something other than classroom space, and a smaller cafeteria. Is that less than ideal? Without question. But it is less-than-ideal for only a (relatively) small portion of any student's given day. Most instruction at the elementary levels takes place in regular education classrooms. In my view, CG is "overcrowded," but it's on the order of a few small degrees -- essentially two or three classrooms.

But didn't the school district/board at one time talk about a building addition for CG School? Good question; indeed it did. Some background that may be helpful. The school board put together the referendum package in February '06. The previous referendum, at a cost of $39.9 million, included a four-classroom addition to CG School. A friend of mine dubbed that referendum the "everything AND the kitchen sink" referendum. It failed badly, garnering only 37 percent support. When the board came back to put together the second referendum, it was concerned (quite appropriately, I would argue) with holding down its cost, and by a significant amount. Part of what was pared from the second referendum was the CG classroom addition, at a cost of at least $1 million and perhaps as much as $2 million. As one of two current board members who helped put together that referendum package, holding off on the CG classroom addition was one of the tougher decisions we made. But we also knew the second referendum had to be less expensive, viewed as more affordable by the citizenry, and demonstrate that the board was serious about paring back costs. In the end, the second referendum cost $28.7 million (still a substantial amount for a district our size), and passed with 59 percent of the vote.

The broad point is this: the school board made a very explicit (and unanimous) decision to approve a referendum package that included a new middle school, and significant improvements to Winnequah, in return for not expanding CG School. The board tried, in the old political parlance, to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Was there a solid rationale at the time for adding on to CG School. Yes? But the larger rationale was passage of the referendum.

Now, I fully recognize and accept that there are those in our school district community who continue to believe that referendum did not meet the needs of the district, and that it should have focused instead on renovating/expanding Winnequah and providing, in some form, additional elementary classroom space in the Cottage Grove attendance area. But the referendum put out by the board, the one that focused instead on building a new middle school (along with improvements to Winnequah), was endorsed by 59 percent of the voters. I don't know of any similar-sized districts that have seen anything as expensive passed by such a margin; maybe there is one, but I haven't found it. In short, I believe the board's decision on the referendum was soundly endorsed by a significant share of the district's voters.

What about future enrollments? They are tough to predict, for anything more than two years out (for a variety of factors, i.e., housing markets, open enrollment trends, gas prices...).

Things we know:

-- TP enrolled eight sections of K this fall, and will likely enroll 8 sections next fall. TP has never enrolled more than 8 sections (classrooms) of K in any one year since it opened in the mid-1990s. That's not to say it won't happen in the future, but it hasn't in the decade-plus that the school has been open.

-- CG School will likely have the same number of regular-education sections next fall (21) that it currently has (7 sections each of the three grades). Seven sections of 4th grade grade will move out, and seven sections of the 1st graders that are now at TP will move in. To my mind, the bigger crunch at CG School comes in the fall of 2010, when the school has to absorb the 8 sections of K now at TP, or one more than CG school currently has now (we have fairly sophisticated models of enrollment retention done by the UW population lab; essentially they tell us that once students enroll in our schools, they tend to stay with us until they graduate. Modest growth in grade enrollment occurs primarily in the middle and high school years, largely through private school/open enrollment into those grades. We tend not to "grow" that much in the elementary years).

-- We enroll 703 student at Glacial Drumlin; its official capacity is 750. There is some room for enrollment growth there, but not a ton (middle school classroom space tends to be a bit more flexible than elementary space, as well). Again, getting back to the referendum, the board tried very hard to "right-size" that school -- not too big (as one of my board colleagues said at the time, "You don't build a church for Easter Sunday"), but large enough to handle some level of enrollment growth. I remain convinced GDS is large enough to handle future enrollment growth in the district.

To answer the question directly of the previous poster, my view (perhaps shared by others on the school board, but perhaps not) is that we don't have a serious overcrowding issue at our CG schools. We have overcrowding at one elementary school there, but it is relatively modest, in my view (on the order, roughly, of 10 percent of the building capacity, or enrollment projections from two years ago, however you want to look at it). Others may view it as alarming, but I don't share that view. Is it manageable in the near-term? I think so, although my guess is that how it can be managed will provoke some interesting debate in our school community. I will say flatly that the crowding at CG School, in my view, doesn't necessitate the drastic step of a referendum for a third elementary school in the CG attendance area; that, to me, would be an overreaction to what I view as a relatively modest problem. (Besides, I don't think this district should seek approval of another school building referendum until the high school referendum is paid off, which I think is about 10 years from now.)

I hope some or all of this provides some additional context for this debate, and perhaps even proves helpful.

20 comments:

Anonymous said...
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Anonymous said...

This will be interesting.

Anonymous said...

I am also curious to hear Peter and/or Phil answer these questions.

I voted for Peter on the advice and recommendation of Phil.

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't call Phil a friend, maybe more of an acquaintance.

I am suffering some degree of distress, as I feel like all of the things that are coming to light in the news over the last few days are things that sound strangely familiar to the things that the VOTE NO group tried to tell me during the middle school referendum and during Peter's campaign.

This is not meant to be disparaging, as I am truly searching for answers.

Honestly, I feel cheated and lied to. Peter, you claimed to carry scientific credentials that would put you in a better position than any other to interpret the UW Applied Population lab numbers on behalf of the constituency as we studied the issues surrounding the middle school referendum.

Where did you go wrong? There were regular community people, just average parents, telling me that you were misleading us in your interpretations, but I chose to follow your lead, since you obviously had some qualifications that the regular citizens who were disputing you did not.

I am saddened to learn that you were indeed misleading us. The new middle school has not even seen the first round of report cards, and already all of the dire enrollmennt predictions of the VOTE NO group have come to fruition. Did you read the Cap Times article? It doesn't paint our situation in a very positive light.

I am feeling like perhaps you knew that this would be the case all along. After all, how could you be so wrong? With all of your stellar credentials?

Perhaps there is a grand plan? Why else would we be finding ourselves in this conundrum? You were so sure of your stance that you virtually GUARANTEED me that we would move in the right direction under your leadership. That has not happened.

At any rate, somebody's got some 'splainin' to do, in Ricky Ricardo's words.

Peter, and the rest of the school board.......this ain't gonna be easy. There will be some very difficult questions for you to answer. For you have very craftily created the situation that our communities now find ourselves in.

You've done a fine job of pitting community against community. After all, how else could you have gotten yourself elected? So now, your legacy will forever be having created an insurmountable animosity between two communities.

Cottage Grove can't afford the fix to this problem that you've created (after all, they need a library, fireman's park improvements, new middle school bills must be paid, need for more police and ems workers, need for new police department headquarters, etc......). And frankly, Monona simply won't tolerate financing a fix, since residents there forecasted these problems and suggested a fix so long ago......

Perhaps those of us not graced with the title of SCHOOL BOARD MEMBER aren't so stupid after all. Perhaps you'd do well to heed some advice from the communities you serve, as elected officials. Perhaps, you can spearhead some healing in your respective communities. Or, you can continue on - and continue to fall on your faces. YOU DECIDE.

When will you - either of you, both of you, whoever - answer the questions being posted on this blog?

Anonymous said...

Funny.

I got ten bucks that says neither Peter or Phil answers any of these posts.

Why? Because they've got no defense. Everything written here has merit, and trying to answer it now will only create a further problem for them.

Peter? Phil?

Help us out! Can you answer any of this for us? After all, we did vote for you? The disenchantment is rampant, in case you are wondering.

I am certain that you expected this fallout to happen much further down the line. However, the predictions from the other side are being borne out much sooner than you thought, therefore, there are many folks who remember..........and care.

So, now what? Please provide some words of guidance as we move forward in these matters. Surely you've got some sage advice!

Anonymous said...

I would like to hear the other board members thoughts too, but Phil is quoted a couple of times and says:
he's "not sold on the notion that we ought to close Maywood,"

To the above posters I think your tone of your questions are prolonging the problem. Do you want them to help you, or do you want to insult them? You have the right to be angry, but take the time to ask in a neutral tone, and you'll get a response quicker. For example:

Peter and Phil,

Where was the error in the data and forcasts that missed the overcrowding at CGE?

Would a CG 5-6 school have prevented the overcrowding in CG now?

Would a CG 5-6 school have kept Maywood open for a long time?

Anonymous said...

"Where was the error in the data and forcasts that missed the overcrowding at CGE? "

There was no error, it was how the data was being read and talked about.

It was clear during the referendum and every year after for anyone who wanted to look for it.

Anonymous said...

How would a 5-6 school have helped? The 5-6 grades from Cottage Grove are in the new school.

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Anonymous said...

Dear Anoymous (the good one)
"put with crap"

I have one more thing to add. Phil and Peter said the referendum would solve our problems. They were pretty vocal about it...as I recall.

Why is it crap to ask them what went wrong?

Anonymous said...

Is this why Phil is not running again in the spring?

Peter Sobol said...

Sorry I haven't had much time to respond to some of the question here:
First of all I think many of the questions are explained in Phil's original post, but here are some of my comments (More later when I have time). At the time of the referendum we desperately needed to deal with the problems of an inadequate space and facilities in the middle school and Taylor Prairie. The referendum has solved these problems as it was intended to. I keep hearing people say "we spent 28 million and we haven't fixed a thing". This is simply false, we have fixed quite a bit, and have an excellent Middle School facility that will serve the district for a long time.

Now Cottage Grove School: A close look at the numbers and projections coupled with village planning that were being seen in Cottage Grove gave a good probability that CG school would be adequate for the quite some time (I can go through the numbers if you like). It was also clear that it would be full and that the next thing we would need is to increase elementary capacity in the CG - but hopefully that would be out 10 years after some other things were paid off. It is prudent and respectful of the taxpayers to plan and build for the most likely scenario and adjust later if necessary.

Although CG is moderately overcrowded I don't think it is the disaster some people are making it out to be. It is not nearly as bad as the situation that persisted in Winnequah for several years. It is the kind of thing districts deal with all the time and for which there are moderate solutions.

The downside of including CG space in the referendum is that if it was not needed due to continued enrollment declines that money would have been wasted. The downside of not including the CG space is that the building would become moderately overcrowded, but that this situation could be remedied later without significant problems. Given this relative downside comparison I think the decision not to include a CG expansion was prudent. One can argue that we should have included additional space at CG in the 2006 referendum, we will know the answer to that in a few years, but at worst it means that we have implemented a 90% solution not 100%. I don’t buy the argument that the 10% difference makes the whole thing a failure.

Lastly I think the unexpected increased enrollment we have seen is a measure that we are on the right track. Many who opposed the referendum predicted that children would leave the district in droves, but the opposite has happened. People are bringing their children to this district because they are favorably comparing it with our neighbors.

Anonymous said...

As always, Peter, I appreciate your sensible analysis. I think we need to be cautious before pushing the panic button. The housing market has tanked in Cottage Grove. Virtually no new homes are going up. I would not support an addition to CG school at this time because we don't know what this economic and housing downturn is going to do to our enrollments a few years from now. What if we proceed with a CG school addition and the enrollments start to decline? I think the board would be wise to keep an eye on the situation and do nothing for now. Enrollment predictions aren't much better than astrology, we certainly know that. Nobody predicted the swift and large decline that happened in Monona over recent years. I cannot support spending money to build school space for kids that aren't already living in our district.

Peter Sobol said...

Dear Distressed: I appreciate your comments, please call me at 661-9534 so we can talk more on these issues.

"Crap" - its not crap to ask about the issues. It is "Crap" to try and score points by blowing a problem out of proportion to score political points and calling people names over it.

And can I collect the ten bucks now?

Peter Sobol said...

"You've done a fine job of pitting community against community. After all, how else could you have gotten yourself elected? So now, your legacy will forever be having created an insurmountable animosity between two communities. "

I re-read this and believe it to be false, although it may be someone's real perception. Please explain it or it will be removed. I can't in any way see anything I have done to pit one community against another.

Anonymous said...

I think someone does owe you $10.

Anonymous said...

I appreciated reading your blog. It does paint a different picture than the rumor mills that have generated. It is sad that it is always going to be a Monona vs. CG thing...it is like 2 spoiled kids trying to get their parent's attention.

Lily Schlammeldanger said...

Spoiled is hitting the nail on the head. The inward focus is really stunning and disappointing. If more people had any any appreciation for what we have, they would show much better stewardship of what really matters. We have so much, and we demand so little educationally of that abundance. What would happen if we could turn out 100 concerned parents at a school board meeting about our students' performance in, say, math? What if the residents of this district held the school board accountable for our students' academic success rather than their position on a building referendum? I know this will never happen, but this is what keeps us from extraordinary rather than ordinary.

Peter Sobol said...

I would cheer the day 100 parents showed up to ask what we are going to do to improving academics.

Anonymous said...

Peter-

I continue to admire your patience and perserverance in answering the comments, often rude, posted here. There are many many of us out here who opposed the referendum, but are very disheartened that folks/leaders of that group have not moved on- and instead just pick away at things. And I totally agree. I would love to see some of those folks take on the truly important issues of the district-academic progress, meeting the needs of all students, whether or not we provide a good balance of extra and co-curricular options for our middle and high school kids---etc. I was very opposed to the new middle school, but now see its benefits-and the increase in kids in the district proves that-- as do all the folks I talk too- and I also want to move the conversation away from buildings. And, as far as dividing the communities, you have definitely been a bridge, not a divider. Thanks for your hard work.